Macroeconomics

Publication date: 6 Feb 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Naisbitt, B, Hantzsche, A, Lennard, J, Lenoel, C, Liadze, I, Lopresto, M, Piggott, R, Thamotheram, C | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 247 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Recent data suggests that the global growth cycle has probably peaked. We forecast world GDP growth of around 3.5 per cent a year over the next two years. On that basis, the second decade of the 21st century will have seen sustained global GDP growth. Tariff increases and trade disputes seem likely...
Publication date: 6 Feb 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Hantzsche, A, Kara, A, Young, G | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 247 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
The UK’s future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided even though the Article 50 exit date is less than two months away. Brexit uncertainty has intensified since our last forecast and is now evident in various indicators. Our main forecast is conditional on a ‘soft’ Brexit...
Publication date: 30 Jan 2019 | Publication type: Report | Theme: Macroeconomics
This Euroframe Report presents an assessment of the economic outlook for 2019 and 2020 focused on the euro area based on a synopsis of the forecasts of Euroframe institutes, including NIESR. Perspectives for UK and CEEs countries are described in Boxes A and B respectively. In the Focus section, we...
Publication date: 23 Jan 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Farmer, R | External authors: Zabczyk, P | NIESR discussion paper number: 498
We demonstrate that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) cannot be used to determine the price level uniquely in the overlapping generations (OLG) model. We provide two examples of OLG models, one with three 3-period lives and one with 62-period lives. Both examples are calibrated to an...
Publication date: 23 Jan 2019 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Turner, P | External authors: Gagnon, J E | NIESR discussion paper number: 497
The more advanced economies in Asia are experiencing slower growth rates. Structural reforms are the most important policies for keeping growth rates up, but this paper takes the growth slowdown as given and focuses on implications for monetary policy. The key policy implication is the impor­tance...
Publication date: 3 Dec 2018 | Publication type: Policy Paper | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | Authors: Chadha, J S | Report number: 9
You can also view the evidence as submitted to the Treasury Committee on the Treasury Committee website The UK is set to leave the European Union at the end of March 2019.  The process of leaving was triggered by the result of the Advisory Referendum held on 23 June 2016, which led to invocation of...
Publication date: 26 Nov 2018 | Publication type: Other | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | Authors: Young, G
Garry Young's note on the methodology used in the report "The Economic Effects of the Prime Minister's Brexit Deal"
Publication date: 26 Nov 2018 | Publication type: Report | Theme: Macroeconomics, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | Authors: Young, G, Hantzsche, A, Kara, A
Read Garry Young's note on the methodology behind this report here.   This report estimates the economic effects of the government’s proposed Brexit deal that was first published on 14 November 2018, and subsequently expanded. The impact of any Brexit deal can be broken down into two key components...
Publication date: 8 Nov 2018 | Publication type: NiGEM Observations | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Liadze, I
Abstract: The trade dispute between the US and China has not abated. On 24th of September, the US imposed a 10 per cent tariff on an additional $200bn imports from China (which, based on 2017 trade data, is around 40 per cent of total US imports of goods and services from China and about 8 per cent...

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