The EU Referendum and Fiscal Impact On Low Income Households

We assess the impact of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) on benefit and tax credit receipts of low income households using detailed fiscal and population data. First, we quantify the effect of leaving the EU on the UK fiscal position from two major sources: (i) the impact on national income and (ii) possible changes in migration. We also account for changes in net contributions to the EU budget. We use a range of possible national income and migration scenarios as inputs for our model estimates.

A Structural Dynamic Microsimulation Model of Household Savings and Labour Supply

A structural model of the household is described that represents current best-practice in the analysis of savings and labour supply responses to the policy environment. Care has been taken in specifying the model so that it represents an appropriate basis for the analysis of incentive effects to policy change, and for exploring the empirical support for alternative structural assumptions. Matching the model to survey data for the UK reveals some interesting puzzles in relation to the timing of retirement.