Brexit

Hard or soft? The politics of Brexit

The British people voted for Brexit for a variety of reasons. A literature is emerging that seeks to explain the outcome using the increasing amount of aggregate and individual data being generated. Less often considered is the impact those factors that shaped the referendum outcome might continue to exert on the debate about the UK’s future relationship with the EU. We argue that they will continue to weigh on political debates. The continued resonance of the Leave message militates against anything but what has come to be known as a ‘hard Brexit’.

Pound in your pocket

Almost half a century ago, Prime Minister Harold Wilson told the country:  "From now the pound abroad is worth 14% or so less in terms of other currencies. It does not mean, of course, that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued.”

The Impact of Possible Migration Scenarios after ‘Brexit’ on the State Pension System

Commissioned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), the purpose of this paper is to explore the impacts of changes in migration flows – in particular, those resulting from possible migration policy changes after a UK exit (‘Brexit’) from the European Union (EU) – on the finances of the UK state pension system. 

The consensus on modelling Brexit

In recent weeks there have been a number of high-profile reports on the economic consequences of a vote to leave the European Union. Among others, the OECD, HM Treasury and we, at the National Institute, have all now published estimates of what the economic landscape might look like in the immediate aftermath of a leave vote on June 23rd. ¹ NIESR’s analysis of the short and long-run impact can be found here, Baker et al (2016).

Free movement of services, migration and leaving the EU

For many people the key question in the referendum is whether a vote to leave will enable the UK to take back control of its borders. So for them the focus is primarily on Article 45 on the Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) which allows free movement of workers. But for individuals much movement to other EU Member States is covered by Article 56 TFEU on the free movement of services.

Britain's Influence in the EU

How much influence does the UK have in Europe? How has this changed? We argue that the UK has tended to view its relationship with the EU in transactional terms, and that this has led to a dominant understanding framed in terms of ‘costs’ and ‘benefits.’ However, thinking more broadly gives a more nuanced picture of British influence.

The impact of free movement on the labour market: case studies of hospitality, food processing and construction

This report is an in-depth study of three sectors employing large numbers of EU migrants – hospitality, food and drink, and construction – and finds employers concerned about their ability to fill vacancies if free movement of labour is reduced or comes to an end. Some are also worried that any EU workers they currently employ would lose their right to live and work in the UK in the event of Brexit. 

The research also reveals that:

Video highlights of our "Economics of the UK’s EU membership" event

Watch highlights of the debate between Lord Norman Lamont (former Chancellor of the Exchequer, 1990-93) and Sir Vince Cable (Secretary of State for Business Innovation and Skills, 2010-15) along with interviews on our YouTube channel. This was part of our "Economics of the UK’s EU membership" conference held on 23 February 2016.

Also included in the playlist are 7 interviews with key speakers at the event.

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