business cycles

Understanding regional economic performance and resilience in the UK: trends since the global financial crisis

We investigate economic resilience of UK regions before, during and after the 2007/8 global financial crisis. We date business cycle turning points in real output, employment and productivity to assess the resilience dimensions of resistance, recovery and renewal and rank the economic resilience of regions in a resilience scorecard. Our empirical results reveal that the business cycle in productivity has not returned to its pre-recession peak level for Yorkshire and the Humber and the employment level has not recovered in Scotland.

The Indeterminacy Agenda in Macroeconomics

This article surveys a subset of literature in macroeconomics which embraces the existence of multiple equilibria. This indeterminacy agenda in macroeconomics uses multiple-equilibrium models to integrate economics with psychology. Economists have long argued that business cycles are driven by shocks to the productivity of labour and capital. According to the indeterminacy agenda, the self-fulfilling beliefs of financial market participants are additional fundamental factors that drive periods of prosperity and depression.