EU

Brexit and the UK's Services Trade

New research by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), commissioned by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

Read the report here

Facing the future: tackling post-Brexit labour and skills shortages

Alongside access to the singlemarket, EU immigration policy is arguably the most important issue facing employers and policymakers resulting from the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. At the time of publication, shortly after the General Election result and with a hung parliament

Immigration: Taking back control?

Immigration and free movement were central to the referendum result – and to what happens next. My paper in November’s National Institute Economic Review examines the short and long-term impacts of the UK referendum on migration flows and migration policy.

Employers’ responses to Brexit: The perspective of employers in low skilled sectors

The EU referendum gave an equal say to all eligible voters but some had more of a stake in the outcome than others, among them employers of EU migrants. Between the end of 2015 and early 2016 we interviewed 24 employers in the low skilled sectors of food and drink, hospitality and construction about free movement and the implications of a Leave vote, publishing our findings in April.

The Impact of Possible Migration Scenarios after ‘Brexit’ on the State Pension System

Commissioned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), the purpose of this paper is to explore the impacts of changes in migration flows – in particular, those resulting from possible migration policy changes after a UK exit (‘Brexit’) from the European Union (EU) – on the finances of the UK state pension system. 

The consensus on modelling Brexit

In recent weeks there have been a number of high-profile reports on the economic consequences of a vote to leave the European Union. Among others, the OECD, HM Treasury and we, at the National Institute, have all now published estimates of what the economic landscape might look like in the immediate aftermath of a leave vote on June 23rd. ¹ NIESR’s analysis of the short and long-run impact can be found here, Baker et al (2016).

Free movement of services, migration and leaving the EU

For many people the key question in the referendum is whether a vote to leave will enable the UK to take back control of its borders. So for them the focus is primarily on Article 45 on the Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) which allows free movement of workers. But for individuals much movement to other EU Member States is covered by Article 56 TFEU on the free movement of services.

Video highlights of our "Economics of the UK’s EU membership" event

Watch highlights of the debate between Lord Norman Lamont (former Chancellor of the Exchequer, 1990-93) and Sir Vince Cable (Secretary of State for Business Innovation and Skills, 2010-15) along with interviews on our YouTube channel. This was part of our "Economics of the UK’s EU membership" conference held on 23 February 2016.

Also included in the playlist are 7 interviews with key speakers at the event.

UK and EU Brief - Trade Brief

Summary data for UK and EU Trade