EU referendum

Employers’ responses to Brexit: The perspective of employers in low skilled sectors

The EU referendum gave an equal say to all eligible voters but some had more of a stake in the outcome than others, among them employers of EU migrants. Between the end of 2015 and early 2016 we interviewed 24 employers in the low skilled sectors of food and drink, hospitality and construction about free movement and the implications of a Leave vote, publishing our findings in April.

#EUref: The Missing Debate

The Missing Debate in the IN/OUT Referendum is the difference between a Single Market and the suggested alternative a Free Trade Agreement. It turns out this matters for the people of the UK - a lot. A Free Trade Agreement doesn't fully cover services - and services account for 8 out of every 10 jobs in the UK.

This animated video is based on independent research at NIESR led by Angus Armstrong.

Produced by Econ Films

The EU Referendum and Fiscal Impact On Low Income Households

We assess the impact of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) on benefit and tax credit receipts of low income households using detailed fiscal and population data. First, we quantify the effect of leaving the EU on the UK fiscal position from two major sources: (i) the impact on national income and (ii) possible changes in migration. We also account for changes in net contributions to the EU budget. We use a range of possible national income and migration scenarios as inputs for our model estimates.

The Impact of Possible Migration Scenarios after ‘Brexit’ on the State Pension System

Commissioned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), the purpose of this paper is to explore the impacts of changes in migration flows – in particular, those resulting from possible migration policy changes after a UK exit (‘Brexit’) from the European Union (EU) – on the finances of the UK state pension system. 

The consensus on modelling Brexit

In recent weeks there have been a number of high-profile reports on the economic consequences of a vote to leave the European Union. Among others, the OECD, HM Treasury and we, at the National Institute, have all now published estimates of what the economic landscape might look like in the immediate aftermath of a leave vote on June 23rd. ¹ NIESR’s analysis of the short and long-run impact can be found here, Baker et al (2016).

Commentary - The economic consequences of leaving the EU

The phony war is over. We enter a crucial final six weeks before the UK’s referendum on EU membership. A decision by the British people to vote to leave will alter the course of both British and European history. While this is fundamentally a political choice, economic consequences are rightly central to the debate. In this issue of the Review we bring together some of our colleagues from the ESRC’s ‘UK in a Changing Europe’ programme, from a variety of disciplines, to examine the implications of this decision.