forecasting

Publication date: 31 Oct 2018 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Barrell, R, Young, G | External authors: Blake, A | JEL classification: C5, E37, F41, F47 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 246 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
The Institute is a world leader in macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. It has produced quarterly economic forecasts for around sixty years, supported by macroeconomic models. The aim of the original builders of macroeconomic models was to transform understanding of how economies worked and use...
Publication date: 26 Nov 2010 | Publication type: Report | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Holland, D, Barrell, R, Kirby, S | External authors: Euroframe Group | Report to: Euroframe Winter Report 2010
Publication date: 17 Aug 2009 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | Authors: Mitchell, J | External authors: Bache, I.W., Ravazzolo, F., Vahey, S.P. | NIESR discussion paper number: 337
We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model specifications (e.g., initial conditions, parameters, and...