macroeconomic analysis

The change of Chancellors has brought change in direction for fiscal policy. Ex-Chancellor Osborne argued that given the level of debt, austerity and a fiscal straight-jacket were necessary to maintain economic and financial confidence. Chancellor Hammond faces even higher debt levels and more uncertainty, but chose to reduce austerity and opt for a non-binding fiscal rule.

Financial crises are like wars; the winners write the history. In the UK the winners are the Treasury and the Bank of England armed with the ultimate weapon of the public purse. There will be no public enquiry into the cause of the crisis or the performance of our public institutions responsible for financial system stability. All this matters because without learning from past mistakes we are condemned to repeat them.