macroeconomic modelling

Macro modelling at the NIESR: its recent history

This paper charts the evolution of mainly empirical research at the NIESR over the1970s and 80s. As was all too evident there were very large discrete technical improvements in data handling and manipulation over this period. Less well appreciated were the effects on the economy of major supply-side shocks coming from the World economy leading to ‘Stagflation’ and, interconnected but somewhat later, in the UK, marked changes in macro policy regime.

Implementing Macroprudential Policy in NiGEM

In this paper we incorporate a macroprudential policy model within a semi-structural global macroeconomic model, NiGEM. The existing NiGEM model is expanded for the UK, Germany and Italy¹ to include two macroprudential tools: loan-to-value ratios on mortgage lending and variable bank capital adequacy targets. The former has an effect on the economy via its impact on the housing market while the latter acts on the lending spreads of corporate and households.

Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU

This paper presents a framework for modelling important socio-economic events in order to provide an informative counterfactual. This involves mapping the deep underlying shock associated with the event itself into a series of more tractable shocks consistent with the model being applied and calibrated from data, existing literature or ancillary analysis. The results should then be subject to testing of their sensitivity to the assumptions made.

Modelling events: the short-term economic impact of leaving the EU

This paper presents a framework for modelling important socio-economic events in order to provide an informative counterfactual. This involves mapping the deep underlying shock associated with the event itself into a series of more tractable shocks consistent with the model being applied and calibrated from data, existing literature or ancillary analysis. The results should then be subject to testing of their sensitivity to the assumptions made.

Press Release: NIESR's Prospects for the UK economy

National Institute Economic Review No. 229 August 2014

EMBARGO 00.01 hours Tuesday 5 August

NIESR’s Prospects for the UK economy