monthly GDP estimate

January 2015 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in December (2014Q4) after growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in November 2014. By this estimate the UK economy grew by 2.6 per cent in 2014.

December 2014 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in November after growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in October 2014.

* NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 5th November 2014) projects GDP growth of 3 per cent per annum in 2014 and 2.5 per cent in 2015.

Press Release: August 2014 GDP estimates

ESTIMATES OF MONTHLY GDP
Embargoed until 15.00 hours on 6th August 2014

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in July after growth of 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in June 2014. This implies an annual rate of growth of around 3 per cent. While the economy regained its pre-recession size recently, a significant negative output gap remains. We expect the MPC to introduce the first interest rate hike in February 2015.