NiGEM

Publication date: 4 May 2018 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | External authors: Erken, H, Hayat, R, Prins, C, Heijmerikx, M, de Vreede, I | JEL classification: F15, F17, F43, D24 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 244 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
We analyse the costs of Brexit. The results show that by 2030 a hard Brexit would reduce cumulative GDP growth by 18 percentage points compared to a situation where the UK continued its EU membership. The economic damage in our FTA and soft Brexit scenarios is less severe than in our hard Brexit...
Publication date: 4 May 2018 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | External authors: Slopek, U | JEL classification: E37, F13, F41, F47 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 244 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
We modify NiGEM in order to study the macroeconomic effects of imposing import tariffs in the US under different assumptions regarding the long-run price setting behaviour of exporters. Overall, the macroeconomic implications in the US resemble the impact of a cost shock or adverse supply shock as...
Publication date: 4 May 2018 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | External authors: Esser, A, Jorra, M, Slopek, U | JEL classification: E37, F14, F17, F44, F47 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 244 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
For a large number of countries, we augment the specification of import demand in NiGEM by accounting for different import contents of individual expenditure components. Three examples illustrate that these changes have important implications for model outcomes. In the case of the recently enacted...
Publication date: 4 May 2018 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Hantzsche, A, Lopresto, M, Young, G | JEL classification: C5, E37, F41, F47 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 244 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
This paper introduces a special issue of the Review on how the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) is being used to navigate uncertain times. NiGEM is the leading global macroeconomic model, used by both policy-makers and the private sector across the globe for economic forecasting...