output gap, real-time, density forecasts, density forecast combination, Taylor rules

Publication date: 1 Dec 2003 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | Authors: Mitchell, J | JEL classification: E32; C53 | NIESR discussion paper number: 225
Output gap estimates calculated in real-time are known to be often unreliable. Recent work has found that, without the benefit of hindsight, it can prove difficult for policy-makers to pin down accurately the current position of the output gap. However, attention primarily has focussed on output...