rational expectations

Macro modelling at the NIESR: its recent history

This paper charts the evolution of mainly empirical research at the NIESR over the1970s and 80s. As was all too evident there were very large discrete technical improvements in data handling and manipulation over this period. Less well appreciated were the effects on the economy of major supply-side shocks coming from the World economy leading to ‘Stagflation’ and, interconnected but somewhat later, in the UK, marked changes in macro policy regime.