Real oil price forecasting

Publication date: 12 Oct 2018 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | Theme: Macroeconomics | External authors: Garratt, A, Vahey, S P, Zhang, Y | JEL classification: C01, C32, C53 | NIESR discussion paper number: 494
Baumeister and Kilian (2015) combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices. In this paper, we broadly reproduce their main economic findings, employing their preferred measures of the real oil price and other real-time variables. Mindful of the importance of Brent crude oil...