United Kingdom

Measuring the permanent costs of Brexit

We analyse the costs of Brexit. The results show that by 2030 a hard Brexit would reduce cumulative GDP growth by 18 percentage points compared to a situation where the UK continued its EU membership. The economic damage in our FTA and soft Brexit scenarios is less severe than in our hard Brexit scenario, although it will still cost the UK economy roughly 12.5 percentage points and 10 percentage points of cumulative GDP growth by 2030, respectively. We find much larger negative effects than most existing studies that use macroeconometric modelling to assess the effects of Brexit.

The macroeconomic effects of banking crises: evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750-1938

This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of UK banking crises over the period 1750 to 1938. We construct a new annual banking crisis series using bank failure rate data, which suggests that the incidence of banking crises was every 30 or so years. Using our new series and a narrative approach to identify exogenous banking crises, we find that industrial production contracts by 8.2 per cent in the year following a crisis.

Commentary: The Economic Landscape of the UK

In a pioneering venture, Christopher Dow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research helped establish the concept of demand management as the key objective of economic policy. He showed in his 1964 work that although demand management had prevented “the heavy unemployment that accompanied the pre-war trade cycle”, the price paid was that of excessive year-to-year fluctuations resulting from policies that ultimately became known as ‘Stop–Go’.

The UK and EU foreign, security and defence policy after Brexit: integrated, associated or detached

None of the existing models for the future trade policy relationship between the UK and the EU come with a predetermined foreign and security policy relationship. This article assesses how the future EU-UK foreign and security policy relationship might be organised post-Brexit. It provides evaluation of the current EU-UK interrelationship in the fields of the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) and assesses the degree to which the UK is presently integrated into EU decision-making and implementation.

Targeting migration with limited control: the case of the UK and the EU

Since 2010 the UK Government has aimed to reduce net-migration. The UK Government cannot restrict EEA migration, and it has focused instead on restricting non-EEA migration, including closing routes intended for non-EEA high-skilled workers. We identify a possible substitution effect in this context: restricting one type of migration may lead to an increase in an unrestricted type (i.e., ‘balloon effect’). We present evidence which is consistent with this substitution effect for the case of high-skilled migrant workers in the UK.