United Kingdom

Publication date: 4 May 2018 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | External authors: Erken, H, Hayat, R, Prins, C, Heijmerikx, M, de Vreede, I | JEL classification: F15, F17, F43, D24 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 244 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
We analyse the costs of Brexit. The results show that by 2030 a hard Brexit would reduce cumulative GDP growth by 18 percentage points compared to a situation where the UK continued its EU membership. The economic damage in our FTA and soft Brexit scenarios is less severe than in our hard Brexit...
Publication date: 1 Sep 2017 | Publication type: NIESR Discussion Paper | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Lennard, J | External authors: Kenny, S, Turner, John D | JEL classification: E32, E44, G21, N13, N14, N23, N24 | NIESR discussion paper number: 478
This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of UK banking crises over the period 1750 to 1938. We construct a new annual banking crisis series using bank failure rate data, which suggests that the incidence of banking crises was every 30 or so years. Using our new series and a narrative...
Publication date: 8 May 2017 | Publication type: General Election Briefing | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Chadha, J S Issue 1
Key points: The conventional wisdom is that this election is about the UK’s decision to leave the EU and this is clearly a critical issue. But political parties should not shy away from answering the question of Britain’s underlying economic weakness. The disappointing growth in the level of GDP...
Publication date: 8 May 2017 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Chadha, J S | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 240 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
In a pioneering venture, Christopher Dow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research helped establish the concept of demand management as the key objective of economic policy. He showed in his 1964 work that although demand management had prevented “the heavy unemployment that...
Publication date: 2 Nov 2016 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | External authors: Whitman, R G | JEL classification: F5, F52, P16 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 238 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
None of the existing models for the future trade policy relationship between the UK and the EU come with a predetermined foreign and security policy relationship. This article assesses how the future EU-UK foreign and security policy relationship might be organised post-Brexit. It provides...
Publication date: 10 Aug 2015 | Publication type: Journal article/book/chapter | Theme: Trade, Investment & Productivity, Exiting the EU & Britain after Brexit | Authors: Rienzo, C | External authors: Vargas-Silva, C | JEL classification: F22, J24 | Journal: IZA Journal of European Labor Studies No. 4 Vol. 16 | Publisher: Springer-Verlag, London
Since 2010 the UK Government has aimed to reduce net-migration. The UK Government cannot restrict EEA migration, and it has focused instead on restricting non-EEA migration, including closing routes intended for non-EEA high-skilled workers. We identify a possible substitution effect in this...