National
Institute of
Economic and
Social Research

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Research interests: 

Richard's primary research interests are time series econometrics, disaggregation over time and across sectors, macroeconomic modelling and model solution software

Education: 

• BA (PPE), Jesus College, Oxford, 1976
• MSc (Econometrics and Mathematical Economics), London School of Economics, 1979

Employment: 

• National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 1976-1977
• Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, 1982-1992
• Centre For Economic Forecasting, London Business School, 1992-1995
• Reader in Econometrics, University of Surrey, 1995-2014
• External Consultant, Bank of England, 1995-2004
• Visiting Fellow, NIESR, 1996-2005
• Consultant, H. M. Treasury, 2004-2009
• Developer of WinSolve software for solving models, 1994-

Selected Publications

• Estimating missing observations in economic time series (1984), Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 125‑131 (with A. C. Harvey)
• Stability of a UK money demand equation:  A Bayesian approach to testing exogeneity (1986), Review of Economic Studies, 53, 603‑634 (with M. Lubrano and J.-F. Richard)
• Econometric analysis of aggregation in the context of linear prediction models (1989), Econometrica, 57, 861-888 (with M. H. Pesaran and M. S. Kumar)
• Testing for aggregation bias in linear models (1990), Economic Journal, 100, 137-150 (with K. C. Lee and M. H. Pesaran)
• Persistence, cointegration and aggregation: a disaggregated analysis of output fluctuations in the US economy (1993), Journal of Econometrics, 56, 57-88 (with M. H. Pesaran and K. C. Lee)
• Choice between disaggregate and aggregate specifications estimated by instrumental variables methods (1994), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 12, 11-21 (with M. H. Pesaran and K. C. Lee)
• Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root (1995), Journal of Econometrics, 65, 333-345 (with A. J. Snell)
• Whatever happened to Goldilocks? The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the US and the UK (2006), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68, 45-79 (with R. L. Driver and J. V. Greenslade)
• Does energy consumption cause economic growth? Evidence from a systematic study of over a hundred countries (2008), Journal of Policy Modeling, 30, 209-220 (with J. Chontanawat and L. C. Hunt)
• Linear-quadratic approximation, external habit and targeting rules (2008), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32, 3315-49 (with P. Levine and J. Pearlman)