Professor Ray Barrell

Barrell, now retired can boast a long established career as a Professor of economics. An Honorary and Emeritus Professor of Economics and Finance, Brunel University, Honorary Fellow, National Institute of Economics and Social Research, London. Formerly a Professor of Economics, Brunel University, from 2011 to 2015, and Head of the Department of Economics and Finance from 2012 to 2014.

Formerly Acting Director from 2010-11, Director of Macroeconomics from 2002-2011, Senior Research Fellow from 1990 at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London.

University lecturer in economics from 1976 to 1984. Then an Economic Advisor at HM Treasury from 1984 to 1987. Economist at NIESR from 1988 to 2011. Part-time professor at the European University Institute, Florence during 1998-1999. Visiting Professor at Brunel University from 2006 to 2011, and at Imperial College, London from 1996 to 2004.



Research Interests

Ray’s current research interests include macroeconomics, growth, foreign direct investment, financial regulation and financial markets. Between 1981 and 2021 he published around 100 papers in academic journals and books, as well as a significant amount of policy related research and commentary at NIESR. Journals include Review of Economics and Statistics, Economic Journal, European Economic Review and Oxford Review of Economic Policy and has authored or edited a number of books and official reports. He has been awarded and successfully completed a large number of research grants and projects.



1973 – B.Sc (Econ), 1971, M.Sc. in Economics (Distinction), LSE


October 1973 – September 1975 – Research Student at LSE with Denis Sargan
October 1975 – September 1976 – Teaching Assistant LSE, teaching MSc statistics
October 1976 – July 1977 – Tutorial Fellow in Economics Sussex University
August 1977 – July 1979 – Lecturer (tenured) in Economics Stirling University
August 1979 – December 1984 – Lecturer (tenured) in Economics Brunel University
October 1983 – September 1984 – Visiting Lecturer Southampton University
October 1984 – December 1987 – Economic Advisor (Established) HM Treasury
January 1988 – March 1990 – Research Fellow, NIESR London
April 1990 – August 2011 – Senior Research Fellow, NIESR London
November 1998 – July 1999 – Professor of Economics, EUI, Florence
July 2010 – January 2011 – Acting Director NIESR
September 2011 –  June 2015 – Professor of Economics Brunel University
September 2012 – July 2014 – Head of Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University

Additional Information

Selected Publications

Barrell, R., Nahhas, (2020) ‘Regional Integration and Bilateral FDI Stocks in the OECD’ International Journal of Finance and Economics, Wiley

Barrell, R., Karim, D., (2020) ‘Banking Concentration and Financial Crises’, National Institute Economic Review, 254, pp. R30-R42.

Barrell, R., Karim, D., (2020) ‘Bank Capital, Excess Credit and Crisis Incidence’, Revue de l’OFCE, 167, 3

Barrell, R., Karim, D., and Macchiarelli, C., (2020) ‘Towards and Understanding of Credit Cycles: Do all Credit Booms Cause Crises?’, European Journal of Finance, 26 (10), 978-993

Barrell, R., Nahhas, (2020) ‘The role of lender country factors in cross border bank lending’, International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol (71) October Article 101314

Barrell, R., Blake, A., Young, G. (2018) ‘Macroeconomic Modelling at the Institute: Hopes, Challenges and a Lasting Contribution’, National Institute Economic Review, 246 (1), pp. R3-R14.

Barrell, R., Dilruba Karim, and Alexia Ventouri.(2017) “Interest Rate Liberalization and Capital Adequacy in Models of Financial Crises”, Journal of Financial Stability, Volume: 33 pp. 261-272

Barrell, R., Costantini, M., and Meco, I., (2015) ‘Housing wealth, Financial wealth, and consumption: new evidence for Italy and the UK’  International Review of Financial Analysis

Barrell, R.  (2014)   ‘Macro-economic policy and the 1981 budget; changing the trend?’, in Needham, D.  and Hotson, A. (eds.) Expansionary fiscal contraction: the Thatcher government’s 1981 budget in perspective.  Cambridge Cambridge University Press

Barrell, R.  and Karim, D.   (2013)   ‘What should we do about (macro) pru?’. LSE Financial Markets Group Special Paper.

Karim, D. , Liadze, I. , Barrell, R.  and Davis, EP.   (2013)   ‘Off-balance sheet exposures and banking crises in OECD countries’. Journal of Financial Stability, 9 (4).  pp. 673 – 681.

Barrell, R. , Holland, D.  and Hurst, AI.   (2012)   ‘Fiscal consolidation: Part 2. Fiscal multipliers and fiscal consolidations’. OECD Economics Department Working Papers.

Barrell R., (2011) ‘Long-Term Fiscal Prospects and Aging in the OECD’ In Bank for International Settlements Working Paper 3672

Barrell, R., (2011) ‘Fiscal Consolidation and the Slimmer State’ National Institute Economic Review January 2011 no 215 pages F4-9

Barrell, R., Kirby, S. (2011) ‘Trend Output and the Output Gap’ National Institute Economic Review January 2011 no 215 pp F63-74

Barrell, R., Holland, D., and Liadze, I., (2011) ‘Accounting for UK Economic Performance 1973-2009  in ‘UK Economy: the Crisis in Perspective’ edited by Gabriele Giudice, Robert Kuenzel and Tom Springbett, published Routledge

Barrell, R. , Davis, EP. , Karim, D.  and Liadze, I.   (2010)   ‘Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries’. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34 (9).  pp. 2255 – 2264.

Barrell, R. , Fitzgerald, J.  and Riley, R.   (2010)   ‘EU enlargement and migration: Assessing the macroeconomic impacts’. Journal of Common Market Studies March, 48 (2).  pp. 373 – 395.

Barrell, R.  and Weale, M.   (2010)   ‘Fiscal policy, fairness between generations, and national saving’. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26 (1).  pp. 38 – 47.

Barrell, R.  and Gottschalk, S.  (2010)   ‘Capital adequacy requirements in emerging markets’, in The Basel Capital Accords in Developing Countries.  Palgrave, London

Barrell, R. , Holland, D. , Liadze, I.  and Pomerantz, O.  (2010)   ‘EMU and its impact on growth and employment’, in Buti, M. , Deroose, S. , Gaspar, V.  and Nogueira, J. (eds.) EMU at 10.

Al-Eyd, A. , Barrell, R.  and Davis, EP.   (2009)   ‘Consumer confidence indices and short-term forecasting of consumption’. The Manchester School, 77 (1).  pp. 96 – 111.

Barrell, R.  and Weale, M.   (2009)   ‘The economics of a reduction in VAT’. Fiscal Studies, 30 (1).  pp. 17 – 30.

Barrell, R., and Davis. E.P., (2008) ‘The Evolution of the Financial Crisis in 2008’ National Institute Economic Review October  2008 no 206 pp 5 -14

Barrell, R., Hurst, A.I., and Kirby, S., (2008) ‘Financial Crises, Regulation and Growth’ National Institute Economic Review October  2008 no 206 pp 56 -65

Barrell, R.  and Davis, EP.   (2007)   ‘Financial liberalisation, consumption and wealth effects in seven OECD countries’. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 54 (2).  pp. 254 – 267.

Barrell, R. , Hurst, AI.  and Mitchell, J.  (2007)   ‘Uncertainty bounds for cyclically adjusted budget balances’, in Larch, M.  and Martins, LN. (eds.) Fiscal Indicators.  Brussels European Commission pp. 187 – 206.

Barrell, R. , Hall, SG.  and Hurst, AIH.   (2006)   ‘Evaluating policy feedback rules using the joint density function of a stochastic model’. Economics Letters, 93 (1).  pp. 1 – 5.

Barrell, R. , Davis, EP.  and Pomerantz, O.   (2006)   ‘Costs of financial instability, household-sector balance sheets and consumption’. Journal of Financial Stability, 2 (2).  pp. 194 – 216.

Al Eyd, A.  and Barrell, R.   (2005)   ‘Estimating tax and benefit multipliers in Europe’. Economic Modelling, 22 (5).  pp. 759 – 776.

Barrell, R. , Becker, B. , Byrne, J. , Gottschalk, S. , et al.   (2004)   ‘Macroeconomic policy in Europe: Experiments with monetary responses and fiscal impulses’. Economic Modelling, 21 (5).  pp. 877 – 931.

Barrell, R.  and Pina, A.   (2004)   ‘How important are automatic stabilisers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment’. Economic Modelling, 21 (1).  pp. 1 – 35.

Barrell, R. , Dury, K.  and Hurst, I.   (2003)   ‘International monetary policy coordination: An evaluation using a large econometric model’. Economic Modelling, 20 (3).  pp. 507 – 527.

Barrell, R.  and Weale, M.   (2003)   ‘Designing and choosing macroeconomic frameworks: The position of the UK after four years of the Euro’. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 19 (1).  pp. 132 – 148

Barrell, R. , Byrne, JP.  and Dury, K.   (2003)   ‘The implications of diversity in consumption behaviour for the choice of monetary policy rules in Europe’. Economic Modelling, 20 (2).  pp. 275 – 299.

Barrell, R.  and te Velde, DW.   (2002)   ‘European integration and manufactures import demand: An empirical investigation of ten European countries’. German Economic Review, 3 (3).  pp. 263 – 293.

Barrell, R.  and Dury, K.   (2000)   ‘Choosing the regime: Macroeconomic effects of UK entry into EMU’. Journal of Common Market Studies, 38 (4).  pp. 625 – 644

Barrell, R.  and te Velde, DW.   (2000)   ‘Catching-up of east German labour productivity in the 1990s’. German Economic Review, 1 (3).  pp. 291 – 297.

Barrell, R.  and Holland, D.   (2000)   ‘Foreign direct investment and enterprise restructuring in Central Europe’. Economics of Transition, 8 (2).  pp. 477 – 504.

Barrell, R.  and Pain, N.   (1999)   ‘Domestic institutions, agglomerations and foreign direct investment in Europe’. European Economic Review, 43 (4-6).  pp. 925 – 934.

Barrell, R.  and Pain, N.   (1999)   ‘Trade restraints and Japanese direct investment flows’. European Economic Review, 43 (1).  pp. 29 – 45.

Barrell, R.  and Pain, N.   (1998)   ‘Real exchange rates, agglomerations, and irreversibilities: Macroeconomic policy and FDI in EMU’. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 14 (3).  pp. 152 – 167.

Barrell, R.  and Pain, N.   (1997)   ‘Foreign direct investment, technological change, and economic growth within Europe’. Economic Journal, 107 (445).  pp. 1770 – 1786.

Barrell, R. , Pain, N.  and Hurst, I.   (1996)   ‘German Monetary Union: An historical counterfactual analysis’. Economic Modelling, 13 (4).  pp. 499 – 518.

Barrell, R.  and Pain, N.   (1996)   ‘An econometric analysis of US foreign direct investment’. Review of Economics and Statistics, 78 (2).  pp. 200 – 207.