Director’s Remarks, May 2018 NIER

"As we have argued the Referendum result and consequent uncertainty over the exact form of future trading relationships imparts two substantive effects. First, it tends to reduce expected trade in goods, capital, labour and services with the EU. Secondly, the uncertainty over future trading relationships will tend to lead to a delay in domestic investment or a diversion internationally to more certain destinations overseas. As such the process of exit from the EU imparts a material asymmetric shock to the UK economy."