- Home
- Publications
- NIESR Wage Tracker – November 2019
NIESR Wage Tracker – November 2019
Pub. Date
12 November, 2019
Pub. Type
Uncertainty Taking Toll on Labour Market
Main points
- According to new ONS statistics published this morning, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.6 per cent (excluding and including bonuses) in the three months to September compared to the year before (figure 1).
- With CPI inflation at 1.8 per cent in the three months to September, real wages grew at an annual rate of 1.8 per cent over the same period.
- Earnings growth was slower in September than at its recent peak in the three months to June and softer than the estimate we published in our Wage Tracker last month. In particular private sector earnings data was weaker than forecast, partly as a result of downward revisions to past data.
- The Wage Tracker indicates that regular earnings growth will remain just above 3½ per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019.
- Based on NIESR Wage Tracker and GDP Tracker information, we estimate unit labour cost growth of around 3-3½ per cent per annum in the fourth quarter, which is somewhat softer than in previous quarters.
Dr Arno Hantzsche
Principal Economist in Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting
“As the country approaches the general election, hiring activity is continuing to soften and the pace of earnings growth is slowing, suggesting that elevated uncertainty and a lack of growth momentum are increasingly taking a toll on the labour market.”
You can read the full analysis in the attached document
Related Blog Posts
Blog
Breaking Down the Different Types of Pension in the UK
Robyn Smith
Adrian Pabst
25 Mar 2024
6 min read
Blog
What Are the Implications of the Rising National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage Rates?
Ekaterina Aleynikova
Adrian Pabst
19 Mar 2024
5 min read
Blog
How Changes in Migration Policy Could Boost Scotland’s Economy
Max Mosley
Ekaterina Aleynikova
18 Dec 2023
3 min read
Related Projects
Related News
news
Press Release: Compositional effects push up average weekly earnings at the end of 2020
26 Jan 2021
2 min read
news
Press Release: 2020 shaping up to be the worst year for total pay growth since 2009
15 Dec 2020
2 min read
Related Publications
publication
Pay-Setting Among Employers in the Agriculture, Cleaning, Hospitality and Retail Sectors
11 Mar 2024
Research Report
Related events
Improving the Recruitment of Older Workers
The UK job market is currently going through dramatic changes, especially due to the impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit, with reports of shortages in many sectors. In addition to giving...
09:00 to 10:30
30 September, 2021