We would all like to have a clearer idea of what the future holds so that we can make better decisions today. That is why governments, central banks and businesses make use of economic forecasts as a guide to policymaking, investment appraisal and planning.
We also recognise, however, that there are the limits to how well the future can be predicted. NIESR has been publishing its economic forecasts since November 1963 and has learnt that the forecast process is inherently subject to large surprises. That does not invalidate the need for forecasts. Rather, it obliges reputable forecasters to set out in advance the scope for forecast errors by use of uncertainty or scenario plots so that users know how to interpret them.
This short Executive Course will provide a guide to producing and interpreting economic forecasts by means of economic models. Participants will be guided by NIESR staff and by other recognised international experts in forecasting. By the end of the course they will be able to produce simple model-based forecasts themselves, understand the sensitivity of forecasts to surprises, and be able to communicate the risks to senior stakeholders in business and government.
Is this course aimed at you?
The course will be particularly valuable to executives at senior levels who are routinely presented with forecasts produced by specialists. It will help them understand how forecasts are constructed and the extent of the risks around them. This will provide a basis for rigorous challenge. The course will also be beneficial to trained economists who are seeking to produce forecasts for their organisations or need a better understanding of how to present forecasts to seniors in their organisations. Organisations will benefit from having executives who have a clear understanding of both the usefulness of economic forecasts and their limitations.
Duration: 3 days
Dates: Monday 11 - Wednesday 13 December 2017
Award: you will receive a University of Warwick Certificate of Attendance on completion of the programme
Fee: £2,400. There is an early bird incentive and other incentives for the public sector - see Fees and discounts
Location: Stanley Building, 7 Pancras Square, London N1C 4AG
We can design a customised version for your organisation (e.g. shorter duration). If interested please contact us.
Contact us: Rachael Brogan, Administrative Manager
Email: warwickinlondon [at] warwick.ac.uk (subject: Forecasting%20with%20the%20NIESR)
Tel: +44 (0) 20-3859-7720