Richard Pierse

Richard is a former consultant to both the Bank of England and HM Treasury.

Research Interests

Richard’s research interests are in time series econometrics, disaggregation over time and across sectors, macroeconomic modelling and model solution software.


Richard’s undergraduate degree in PPE is from the University of Oxford, with an MSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics from the London School of Economics.


  • Consultant, H. M. Treasury, 2004-2009
  • Visiting Fellow, NIESR, 1996-2005
  • External Consultant, Bank of England, 1995-2004
  • Reader in Econometrics, University of Surrey, 1995-2014
  • Developer of WinSolve software for solving models, 1994-
  • Centre For Economic Forecasting, London Business School, 1992-1995
  • Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, 1982-1992
  • National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 1976-1977

Additional Information

Selected Publications

  • Estimating missing observations in economic time series (1984), Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 125‑131 (with A. C. Harvey)
  • Stability of a UK money demand equation:  A Bayesian approach to testing exogeneity (1986), Review of Economic Studies, 53, 603‑634 (with M. Lubrano and J.-F. Richard)
  • Econometric analysis of aggregation in the context of linear prediction models (1989), Econometrica, 57, 861-888 (with M. H. Pesaran and M. S. Kumar)
  • Testing for aggregation bias in linear models (1990), Economic Journal, 100, 137-150 (with K. C. Lee and M. H. Pesaran)
  • Persistence, cointegration and aggregation: a disaggregated analysis of output fluctuations in the US economy (1993), Journal of Econometrics, 56, 57-88 (with M. H. Pesaran and K. C. Lee)
  • Choice between disaggregate and aggregate specifications estimated by instrumental variables methods (1994), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 12, 11-21 (with M. H. Pesaran and K. C. Lee)
  • Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root (1995), Journal of Econometrics, 65, 333-345 (with A. J. Snell)
  • Whatever happened to Goldilocks? The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the US and the UK (2006), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68, 45-79 (with R. L. Driver and J. V. Greenslade)
  • Does energy consumption cause economic growth? Evidence from a systematic study of over a hundred countries (2008), Journal of Policy Modeling, 30, 209-220 (with J. Chontanawat and L. C. Hunt)
  • Linear-quadratic approximation, external habit and targeting rules (2008), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32, 3315-49 (with P. Levine and J. Pearlman)