NiGEM Observations

A preliminary assessment of the possible economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak: update

 

Summary

• The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a global economic shock. We provide an exploratory analysis of its impact on the global economy
• The channels we focus on are a reduction in labour, a reduction in expenditure and investment, an increase in uncertainty, and a temporary shutdown in some sectors
• Not accounting for substantial policy responses, the underlying impact on global GDP growth may be similar in magnitude to the financial crisis of 2008/9.

 

The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Give-Aways

 

Abstract:

 

In this NiGEM Observation, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of expansionary fiscal policy measures on the UK economy. We consider two fiscal packages, one based on Labour Party policy and one based on some of the policies put forward during the 2019 Conservative Party leadership campaign. We show that while these policies would have little effect on the level of economic output, they might nevertheless change the composition of output and the distribution of income in the directions desired by those that proposed them.

Update: Modelling the short- and long-run impact of Brexit

This NiGEM Observation presents updated estimates of the economic impact of different Brexit scenarios based on analyses recently published by NIESR and building on earlier work on EU withdrawal by the Institute (e.g. Pain and Young, 2004; Ebell et al., 2016). It provides an overview of the assumptions we made when modelling different types of Brexit outcomes, namely continued EU membership, a soft Brexit (continued membership of the EU single market and customs union, the baseline assumption underlying recent NIESR forecasts), a UK-EU customs union, and an orderly no deal Brexit.

Trade war - the saga continues

Abstract:

The trade dispute between the US and China has not abated. On 24th of September, the US imposed a 10 per cent tariff on an additional $200bn imports from China (which, based on 2017 trade data, is around 40 per cent of total US imports of goods and services from China and about 8 per cent of total Chinese exports of goods and services). The Chinese authorities retaliated by imposing 5–10 per cent tariffs on $60bn of Chinese imports from the US. At the time of writing, the US was set to increase tariffs further from 10 to 25 per cent at the start of 2019.

Post referendum developments in uncertainty measures: an update

NiGEM Observations is a series of occasional notes published by the NiGEM team on topical macroeconomic modelling issues for NIESR corporate sponsors and NiGEM subscribers.

How much monetary policy space is left?

NiGEM Observations is a series of occasional notes published by the NiGEM team on topical macroeconomic modelling issues for NIESR corporate sponsors and NiGEM subscribers.

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