Autumn 2023 Press Conference

There have been, since the summer, small glimmers of hope. A slowdown in the rate of inflation led to the MPC in September – after fourteen successive interest rate rises – voting to keep the current rate unchanged. Recent revisions to the GDP figures demonstrated that our economic performance since Covid-19 had been stronger than previously thought, with faster growth than some of our European neighbours. However, with a war on European soil still going on, stretched public services, crumbling schools, ongoing labour disputes and historic problems around productivity levels, can we really believe that the worst is behind us?

In advance of the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, our last forecast for 2023 will examine the outlook for the UK economy. Is a recession likely? Will the rate of inflation continue to fall, and when might it return to target? What is happening in the labour market? How can policymakers reverse the declining investment rate to address regional inequalities and promote long-run economic growth?

Globally, we will look to answer questions around whether we’ve seen the peak of the global monetary policy tightening cycle. If so, how long can we expect policy rates to remain elevated? Will tight policies lead to a deeper recession in the Euro Area? How severe is the impact of the slowdown in China? Will the global economy be weaker in 2024 than the already weak 2023? When will inflation rates return to target levels?

Ahead of the publication of our Autumn UK and Global Economic Outlooks, this press conference is an opportunity for journalists to hear directly from the researchers, ask questions and gain an insight into what the findings mean for policymakers and the wider public.

Please note this event for journalists only. If you are interested in attending, please email the NIESR Press and Media Team