Summer 2023 Economic Forum

NIESR is delighted to bring to you our latest Economic Forum where we presented our forecast for the next economic quarter.

With inflation remaining stubbornly high, a labour market that is suffering from a severe labour shortage and an overall stagnation in living standards, policymakers in the UK face several challenges as they enter the summer recess. How should the Bank of England respond to the persistent underlying inflation? Should they continue with further rate rises and risk a recession, or should they wait and in doing so possibly extend its duration whilst allowing the full impact of the previous increases to pass-through the economy?

Our anaemic growth, low levels of business and public-sector investment, and a historic problem around poor productivity, indicate that there are wider structural problems that need addressing. How can we attract those who are currently economically inactive back into the labour force?  What should be done to tackle the high numbers of long-term sick?   What skills does our labour force need in the future?  These are just some of the themes that our summer UK Economic Outlook examines.

Globally, how sluggish will growth be this year as the worldwide monetary tightening kicks in? How deep and persistent will be the recession in Germany and the Euro Area as a whole?  Will the United States experience a recession or have the Fed engineered the perfect soft landing? Will Chinese growth continue to slow from its relatively strong first quarter, or will it bounce back? And what about core inflation – will it start to ease as global headline inflation seems to have peaked?

Our expert commentators answer these questions, as well as provide a greater insight into the key economic issues we face.