With a reduction in the rate of inflation and rising wages driving an improvement in consumer confidence, will 2024 be a better year for the UK and global economies? And how might the geopolitical events in the Middle East, and the ongoing war in Ukraine, affect this outlook? As the UK, USA and several European countries all enter an election year, our Winter Economic Outlook explores some of the main challenges that the incoming administrations may face.
Domestically, there looks to be little prospect of significant economic growth, with the UK performing poorly against other G7 economies. This poor productivity growth is compounded by a fall in labour supply, with the number of people employed in the UK remaining below its pre-pandemic level. The central question remains: What policies should the Chancellor enact in his Spring Budget and beyond to drive growth and entice more people back to work? And, despite the increase in wages, when will living standards recover for all?
Globally, we examine the main risks and challenges facing policymakers as inflation rates slowly return to target. How quickly will this occur, when will policy rates start to fall and will the cumulative effect of the monetary tightening lead to recessions? What are the prospects for global growth and how will the upcoming elections affect those economies?
Our expert commentators explore these issues and offer their insights into the economic challenges ahead.