Potential impacts on the UK of future migration from Bulgaria and Romania

This research was commissioned by the British Embassy in Romania, to provide evidence from which the UK Government can assess the potential impacts of migration from EU2 countries following the lifting of transitional controls at the end of 2013. To assess potential impact, we looked at migration from Bulgaria and Romania and at patterns and characteristics of migrants, within the EU and currently to the UK.

Methods

The review is based on an analysis of literature and data in English, Bulgarian and Romanian. The research did not include making estimates of the number of migrants which Britain might expect to arrive, since these are likely to be inaccurate and misleading. Instead, the research considered factors which will encourage and discourage migration, the potential impact of the migration which may occur on key services of health, education, housing and welfare and what preparations might be put in place. The report, which was published in April 2013 concludes that, because migrants from Romania and Bulgaria are likely to be predominantly young and without children, initial impact is unlikely to be substantial, but may change if longer term settlement develops.

In addition to the report, published by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, we have published a number of blogs, including in the Guardian Comment is Free and Huffington Post

The report has been very widely covered by the media.