Real-time turning point indicators; International review of current practices
Real-time turning point indicators are useful tools for policy makers and private sector agents to understand the current state of the economy and whether current trends are likely to change in the near future. With appropriate information, economic agents can then adjust their behaviour more appropriately to changing economic conditions. Turnaround indicators can either be based on some composite leading indicators – like the one produced by The Conference Board in the United States - or on some single series. Leading (or coincident) indicators are based on business surveys, credit and equity indices, consumer expectations or other economic and financial indicators.
Start date: May 2019
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Layton A.P. and Katsuuraa M. (2001) Comparison of regime switching, probit and logit models in dating and forecasting US business cycles, International Journal of Forecasting 17 pp. 403–417