The 2024 Survey of Economists

Stephen: Voters should feel better about their living standards in the run-up to the election as, for the first time in a few years, wages are growing faster than prices. 

Stephen: Inflation is on its way down towards the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent. But, it’s still a little early to declare the win! I expect inflation to reach something close to 3.5 per cent by the end of 2024, noting that this is still above the Bank’s target. And the risks are to the upside with the possibility of higher than expected wage inflation, not to mention geopolitical risks leading to another spike in energy prices. Given these risks, I don’t expect the MPC to reduce rates until late in the year. 

Stephen: Growth in 2024 will be anaemic at best. I expect GDP to grow by only 0.5 per cent; while this means the economy will escape ‘stagnation’, in the sense of growing a little, this is still a very low growth rate and lower than what I expect to see in other advanced economies.

Stephen: I’m not sure it will happen but a marked increase in public investment would be the key policy change that could do most to boost long-run UK growth.