China’s Slowdown is Structural

China has directly contributed one quarter of the growth in global GDP (as measured by the IMF at purchasing power parities) thus far during the 21st century. But its trend growth rate has unambiguously slowed over this period, and is likely to continue on a slowing trend.

Pub. Date
04 May, 2022

Main points

  • China is no longer capable of sustaining the double-digit growth in real GDP that it did between 1979 and the global financial crisis.
  • Under Xi Jinping they are pursuing a range of economic objectives that are not focused around maximising GDP growth. The most recent meeting of China’s National People’s Congress set a real GDP growth target of 5½ per cent for 2022 – which, if achieved would be the lowest growth rate in 40 years.

See our other box analysis from the Global Economic Outlook