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Modelling the impact of the American Rescue Plan in NiGEM
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Pub. Date
10 May, 2021
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This content is restricted to corporate members, NiGEM subscribers and NIESR partners.
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Macro-Economic Modelling and ForecastingPublisher
NIESR, London
Key points
- The incoming US President has announced a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus to the economy that amounts to around 9 per cent of GDP.
- Using our NiGEM model we estimate that this stimulus could add around 3 percentage points to US GDP growth and, including spillover effects from trade, just under 1 percentage point to global GDP growth in its first year.
- Higher inflation will also result, with a key factor likely to be how the fiscal transfers affect the spending of income-constrained households.
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