- Home
- Publications
- Consumer Confidence Indices And Short-term Forecasting Of Consumption
Consumer confidence indices and short-term forecasting of consumption
Related Themes
Macro-Economic Modelling and ForecastingJournal
Manchester School
Paper Category Number
304
Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential short-term link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, which could be used for forecasting, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption.
Related Blog Posts
Inflation Still Likely to Fall to 2 per cent or Below Next Month
Huw Dixon
17 Apr 2024
8 min read
What is the Current State of the UK Economy?
Paula Bejarano Carbo
Stephen Millard
26 Feb 2024
7 min read
Related Projects
Related News
Why it’s not worth worrying that the UK has technically entered a recession
26 Feb 2024
4 min read
Related Publications
Recessionary Pressures Receding in the Rearview Mirror as UK Economy Gains Momentum
12 Apr 2024
GDP Trackers