Macro-Economic Modelling and Forecasting

Our greatest economic challenge is to understand how the forces of globalisation will affect our prosperity. Modelling important economic and financial interactions in the UK and global economies is the best way to make sense of the processes shaping our future.

NIESR is the leading macroeconomics research institute in the UK and home of one of the most successful large-scale structural macroeconomic models in the world.  We produce quarterly forecasts on both the UK and global economy, as well as a series of monthly trackers. Subscribers to the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) include central banks, finance ministries and an increasing number of private organisations.

Projects

Publications

publication

Wage Growth Remains Strong, Despite Rising Unemployment

14 May 2024

Wage Trackers

publication

Positive Growth Delivers an Encouraging Momentum

10 May 2024

GDP Trackers

publication

A Pre-Election Gloom

09 May 2024

UK Economic Outlook

publication

A Neural Network Approach to Forecasting Inflation

09 May 2024

UK Economic Outlook Box Analysis

publication

Resilient to the Challenges of the New Reality

09 May 2024

Global Economic Outlook

publication

Endogenous Defaults, Value-at-Risk and the Business Cycle

18 Apr 2024

Discussion Papers

publication

Services Inflation Poses Risk to Summer Interest Rate Cuts

17 Apr 2024

CPI Trackers

publication

Real Pay Growth at a Two-Year High Amidst Falling Inflation

16 Apr 2024

Wage Trackers

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Blog Posts

Blog

New Methodology Suggests Inflation May Rise to 3.2 Per Cent at the Start of 2025

Huw Dixon

Jane Binner

Barry Jones

Jon Tepper

14 May 2024

4 min read

Blog

Future Prospects for the UK Economy

Paula Bejarano Carbo

13 May 2024

5 min read

Blog

An Overview of the UK Economic Situation

Max Mosley

Stephen Millard

07 May 2024

8 min read

Blog

Inflation Still Likely to Fall to 2 per cent or Below Next Month

Huw Dixon

17 Apr 2024

8 min read

Blog

What Next for UK Inflation and the Economy?

Hailey Low

Stephen Millard

08 Apr 2024

6 min read

Blog

Inflation: Down, But Not Out

Huw Dixon

20 Mar 2024

9 min read

Blog

What is the Current State of the UK Economy?

Paula Bejarano Carbo

Stephen Millard

26 Feb 2024

7 min read

Blog

Inflation Expected to Fall Below Two Per Cent by April

Huw Dixon

14 Feb 2024

7 min read

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News

Events

People